EIA gasoline prices: 6 steps for a fuel line

Key takeaways

• Match the price to the fuel purchase period.
• Distinguish historical annual averages from forecasts.
• Choose nominal or real dollars before comparing prices.
• Save the source link and volume assumptions with your calculation.

If the gasoline price behind it does not match the date your bid is priced for, the estimate can be off before any work starts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes several gasoline figures on its gasoline prices and outlook page, and they answer different questions. This post covers four of them, says what the EIA page states about each, and gives you a way to choose among them.

Treat the four figures as separate tools. Each one has its own year range, its own dollar basis, or its own kind of number. Mixing them up is an easy mistake to make when a bid is due.

If you set fuel or haul lines for bids, the question is which figure fits the date your bid is priced for. The answer depends on the period the fuel covers, the dollar basis you need, and whether you need a history or a forecast. The sections below work through each of those choices.

What does a fuel line need to show?

A fuel line needs four things stated in the bid: a price, a volume, a period, and a dollar basis. The price comes from one of the figures in this post. The volume comes from your own estimate of the work. The period tells the reader which year the price is meant to cover, and the dollar basis tells the reader whether the price is nominal or real. If any one of these is missing, the reader cannot check the number, and the line is harder to defend.

The sections below take each figure in turn, then cover how to choose among them, how to calculate the line, what to check before submitting, and how to document the result.

Which figure covers a past or current year?

The EIA graph shows average annual nominal and real prices of retail regular-grade gasoline from 1976 through 2027, so it is the place to look for a yearly retail average.

Use this series for observed annual retail regular-grade gasoline averages in historical years; its annual averages for 2026 and 2027 are forecasts. Find the year that matches the period you are pricing, then read the nominal or real value you need. Any year from 1976 through 2027 falls inside the graph's range.

An annual average smooths out the months inside the year. If your fuel purchases are concentrated in a few months, or your bid date falls in a stretch when prices were well away from the yearly average, the annual figure may not describe your actual cost. Say so in the bid notes and decide whether the gap matters for your line.

This series describes retail regular-grade gasoline. If your fleet buys a different grade, or buys at a different level in the supply chain, these figures do not describe that purchase.

Record the graph, the year, the series name, and the page link in your bid file. A reviewer who asks where the number came from should be able to find it quickly.

Write the period as a full year rather than a rough description. A bid that says "recent prices" gives the reviewer nothing to check, while a bid that names the year and the series gives them a page to open.

Nominal or real: which basis should you use?

Use the real figure when you need to compare years on one dollar basis, because EIA states that its real prices are based on the value of the U.S. dollar in February 2026.

Nominal prices are the figures in the dollars of the year they describe. Real prices adjust for changes in the value of the dollar, and EIA uses February 2026 as the base for its real figures. Since the real figures are all based on that same date, real figures for different years share one base.

Use the nominal figure when the bid is priced in the money of the year it covers. The EIA graph gives both series, so the choice comes down to what your bid needs, not which one is available. A multi-year line may need both: a real figure to compare the years with each other, and a nominal figure for the money each year will actually be priced in. In that case, state which figure is used for which purpose, so the two are never confused.

Do not place a nominal figure from one year beside a real figure from another. Convert both to the same basis first, or use one series for the whole comparison.

What does EIA expect for 2026 and 2027?

EIA's forecast for average annual prices for 2026 and 2027 appears in the February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, so that outlook is the source to cite for a forecast price in those two years.

Use this figure when your bid falls in 2026 or 2027 and you need a forward number rather than a history. A forecast is an estimate made as of its publication, so it is an expectation as of February 2026, not a later one.

Check whether a later outlook has been published before you rely on the February figures. If you use this source, name the report in the bid file, along with the month it was released.

The quoted forecast covers 2026 and 2027. For another year, choose a listed source only if its coverage includes that year.

What does the long-range outlook project out to 2050?

The Annual Energy Outlook includes projections for average real and nominal prices for U.S. retail gasoline out to the year 2050, and you can find those projections in the Counterfactual Baseline case, Table 12.

Use this source for a fuel line covering years after 2027 through 2050. Because the projections are given in both real and nominal terms, keep the same discipline described above: pick one basis and state it everywhere the figure appears.

Open the Counterfactual Baseline case first, then pull Table 12 from it, so you are reading the right table. Confirm that the labels in the table match the year and the basis you stated before you copy a value. Long-range projections depend on assumptions, so record the year of the Annual Energy Outlook report and the case you used. A reviewer should be able to pull the same table and get the same number. The Annual Energy Outlook and the Short-Term Energy Outlook are separate reports, so cite each one by its own name and publication date rather than treating them as a single source.

How do you turn a price figure into a fuel line?

Multiply the gallons you expect to buy by the price for a gallon you chose from the figures above, then state both inputs in the bid. The price is only one input. The volume is the other, and a fuel line is only as sound as both.

Estimate the gallons from the work itself: the miles or hours each vehicle or machine will run, and how much fuel it uses for each mile or hour. Write each assumption down, including where the number came from. A reviewer who disagrees with one input can change that input without rebuilding the whole line.

Keep the units consistent. If your price is for a gallon, your volume must also be in gallons. If your fuel log records a different unit, convert it before you multiply, and note the conversion in the bid file.

Decide whether the line carries any margin for uncertainty. Some estimators add a percentage on top of the calculated cost to cover movement in the price or the volume. Whether to do that, and how much, is a judgment for your own pricing policy. For related pricing calculations, see markup and margin rates. None of the EIA figures in this post sets it.

Illustrative example: a fuel line calculation

Assume an illustrative volume of 20 gallons and an illustrative price of $3 for a gallon. Multiplying 20 by $3 gives an illustrative fuel cost of $60. These are calculation inputs, not EIA prices. Record the purchase period and dollar basis beside the calculation.

How do you choose the right figure for a bid date?

Match the period your fuel will be bought to the figure that covers it, then fix the dollar basis. Work through these steps in order:

1. Write down the date the bid is priced for and the period the fuel will be bought.
2. If the period is in 2026 or 2027, use the February 2026 forecast from the section on 2026 and 2027, and check whether a later outlook exists.
3. If the period is another year the historical graph covers, use the annual retail regular-grade figure from the first section.
4. For a period after 2027 and through 2050, use Table 12 in the Counterfactual Baseline case from the section on 2050.
5. If the period is before 1976, the graph does not cover it.
6. Choose nominal or real, and state the basis in the bid file.

The bid date and the purchase period are not always the same. A bid can be prepared in one month and priced for fuel bought months later. Use the purchase period to pick the figure, and use the bid date to explain why the figure was chosen. If the two fall in different years, say so in the bid note, because a reviewer will otherwise assume they match.

Check whether the refiner series supplies applicable data for your purchase period before using it. The EIA page mentions a data series called Refiner Gasoline Prices Through Retail Outlets (excluding taxes) and states that the data series was suspended in 2022. If a replacement is needed, match the purchase period, gasoline type, supply-chain level and tax treatment.

Today, check one fuel line in your current bid: write its purchase period beside the calculation and confirm that the chosen source covers it.

When should a fuel line be reviewed?

Review it on a date specified in the bid, and sooner if the price basis you used no longer covers the period being priced.

A bid priced on the February 2026 forecast and a bid priced on a historical annual average are different kinds of numbers, so the review should first check which kind you used. If the forecast has been replaced by a later outlook, the review is the moment to update the line or to note why you did not.

If the contract includes a reopener, use the review date to decide whether the reopener should be triggered. If it includes a price adjustment clause, follow its terms for the base level and price source; the final section describes a related federal rule.

When the line changes, tell the person who relies on the bid what changed and why. Give the old figure, the new figure, the source of each, and the date of the change. A clear note at that point is easier to explain than a silent update.

What mistakes should you check for before you submit?

Check that each figure's year, basis, and series match the period you priced, and that no figure is used outside the range its source states.

Look for these problems before the bid goes out:

• A nominal figure from one year sitting beside a real figure from another, with no conversion.
• A forecast from the February 2026 outlook used for a year it does not cover.
• An annual average used as if it were the price on a specific date within the year.
• A refiner-series figure used outside its applicable coverage.
• A volume in one unit multiplied by a price in another.

If you find any of these, fix the input and note the change in the bid file. Do not quietly swap a figure, because the next reviewer will not know why the number moved. For a broader check of the bid's inputs, use the construction estimate audit.

How should you document the figure you used?

Record the source, the exact figure, the dollar basis, and the date you pulled it, so the number can be repeated later by you or by someone else.

A short bid note can carry all of it. For each figure, list the source name, the link, the year or forecast month, the nominal or real basis, the volume assumption, and the date you pulled the figure. Keep the note next to the calculation, so the price and the gallons can be checked together.

Contract rules offer a related idea. The rules for federal contracts describe price adjustments as "increases or decreases from an agreed-upon level in published or otherwise established prices of specific items or the contract end items." The same section lists "adjustments based on cost indexes of labor or material" as one type. That text is part of the federal acquisition rules, so check whether your own contract uses it before you apply it. Its approach is still useful for a private bid: name the base level and the published source, so later changes can be measured from a fixed starting point. The source is FAR 16.203-1.

Set the figure first and the line second. Once the source, year, and basis are written down, the number is one you can explain to the person who signs the bid.